The Voice Of One Crying Out In Suburbia

Pat Crowley writes in the Cincinnati Enquirer about the political dichotomy between Ohio and Kentucky. Because we sit on the border and a large percentage of Cincinnati's workers live n Kentucky, we see a little of both worlds. In the Presidential race, it is a tale of two cities (or states in this case). Ohio is inunudated with candidates. Bush, Cheney, Kerry and Edwards are all over Ohio. In Kentucky, while we get the TV and radio ads since they originate in Ohio, the candidates are nowhere to be seen. He hots on a bigger issue with this comment...

But there is a also a deeper reason why Kentucky is almost certain to be a red state this year, and it explains why Kerry is going to have a hard time winning.

Parties can't win with near hatred for their opponent but only lukewarm support for their own nominee. Ask the Republicans about 1992 and 1996. The party couldn't stand Clinton, but the GOP faithful roused little passion for his opponents.

The same dynamic is happening this year. Democrats are working hard to defeat Bush on issues such as Iraq, the economy, the deficit and more. Against a stronger opponent I'm convinced Bush would be in serious trouble.

But Kerry does little to raise the juice of most voters. He's there because the Democrats, at least nationally, currently have a very thin bench. He was the best they had, but that's probably not going to be good enough.

I've said it before, John Kerry is the Democrats Bob Dole. We expected Dole, a legitimate war hero, to just show up and the contrast between him and draft dodger Bill Clinton would lead to him sailing into the White House almost unopposed. Unfortunately, conservatives were uninspired by Dole and didn't show up. Heck we didn't show up all that much in 2000 and Bush won. His support amongst the religious right is at it's peak and I expect my peeps will show up in droves nationwide.

Also, Cincinnati and southwest Ohio in general are far more conservative than Toledo and Cleveland, probably due in part to our proximity to Northern Kentucky.

Things are starting to sound grim in the Kerry camp. With basically six weeks to go, Kerry keeps sliding. Unless something dramtic happens soon, this race might be over. I know nothing is over until the votes are counted (or recounted and re-re-counted until the Democrats and their lawyers have had enough), but Kerry needs to find some momentum fast. The big opportunity might be the debates but when he shows up on national TV and comes across as haughty and dour (which he will), I doubt he will inspire much confidence. If he loses, I imagine the Swift Boat Vets will have played a large part, as here we are in mid-Septmeber and he is spending all of his energy defending his increasingly dubious Vietnam war record. You live by the sword and die by the sword. Kerry got his wish and this election is all about his war record, it just didn't work out quite like he had hoped.